The future comes fast

By the time today’s teenagers – Gen X and Gen Alpha – are planning their honeymoons or booking business trips, travel will be almost unrecognisable. Aircraft will run on hydrogen and electricity; AI will curate hyper-personalised itineraries in seconds; passports may live on digital identities; while fully immersive previews will enable travellers to explore destinations before they ever leave home.

2040 has become a critical marker for global tourism, not because it is far away, but because it is close enough to demand action now. It represents the point at which today’s megatrends in sustainability, technology, and consumer behaviour will converge to reshape how humanity moves, connects, and explores.

That’s why Arabian Travel Market (ATM) has themed its 2026 edition: ‘Travel 2040: Driving New Frontiers Through Innovation and Technology’. As the leading international travel and tourism event in the Middle East, ATM will bring together global leaders, innovators, and visionaries to explore how the industry can co-create a smarter, more sustainable travel future, by 2040 and beyond.

In the lead-up to the show (May 4-7, 2026), the conversation begins here, identifying the ‘Six macro trends driving the future of travel to 2040’ and what each means for the industry worldwide.

Macro trend 1: Demand redefined: volume meets value

“Travel growth will be explosive, but purpose will define the winners.”

The global travel economy is poised for unprecedented expansion. Boston Consulting Group projects that leisure travel spending will triple from US$5 trillion today to around $15 trillion by 2040. The World Economic Forum forecasts more than 30 billion global trips by 2034, while regional tourism boards from the GCC to ASEAN are investing billions in future-ready infrastructure. But this growth is no longer defined by sheer numbers. Travellers increasingly seek meaning, not mileage, choosing closer, slower, more purposeful journeys.

What it means for the travel industry: Success will depend on balancing growth with genuine sustainability. Destinations and travel brands alike must design modular, data-informed products and journeys that reflect travellers’ values, from low-carbon mobility and circular design to community driven tourism models. A leading example is Expo City Dubai, which is reimagining the visitor and resident economy through net-zero infrastructure, smart mobility, and inclusive public spaces, proving that innovation and impact can coexist. For the industry, the real measure of success by 2040 will be creating long-term value, not short-term volume.

Macro trend 2: New source markets, new power maps

“The travel world’s centre of gravity is shifting and Asia is the new axis.”

The rise of emerging source markets is redrawing global travel flows. Google Think and Deloitte forecast that India’s outbound travel could grow fivefold by 2040, while China’s market is expected to surge from US $140 billion in 2024 to US $386 billion by 2033 (DPI Research). What’s more, the ATM 2029 APAC Outbound Travel report predicts that Asia-Pacific will generate more than half of all new global travellers by 2029, led by China, India and Southeast Asia’s expanding middle classes.

Younger, digital-first travellers from these markets are seeking experiences that mirror their identities and values. As spending power moves east and south, so will influence, redirecting air routes, investment priorities, and marketing strategies. Middle Eastern hubs such as Dubai and Riyadh are already adapting, expanding aviation links and tailoring campaigns to Asia’s fast-growing middle class.

What it means for the travel industry:
Destinations and brands must look beyond traditional Western markets to connect with a new generation of culturally diverse, tech-savvy travellers. Success depends on understanding local nuance such as booking habits, payment systems, plus values that shape decision-making. Those who see emerging-market travellers as co-creators of global tourism, not just consumers, will lead travel’s next frontier.

Macro trend 3: Technology and mobility: the architecture of tomorrow’s travel

“Tomorrow’s trips will be curated by code, powered by clean energy, and delivered seamlessly.”

Technology is fast becoming the invisible engine behind travel’s reinvention. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects 8.5 billion air passengers annually by 2043, driven by smart airports, autonomous transfers, and AI-enabled operations.

From biometric border checks to AI trip design and hydrogen-powered aircraft, innovation is redefining convenience and sustainability alike. Singapore’s Changi Airport uses digital twins to simulate passenger flows and optimise energy use, while Dubai Airports has rolled out biometric smart gates that enable passport-free journeys in seconds. Looking ahead, Saudi Arabia’s NEOM is testing next-generation mobility systems such as autonomous shuttles and zero-emission air taxis.

What it means for the travel industry: Digital fluency is now non-negotiable. Travel businesses that integrate AI responsibly, prioritise privacy, and align with sustainability will lead the next phase of travel. ATM Travel Tech, a co-located event at ATM, will show them how, showcasing breakthroughs in AI, immersive tech, smart payments, mobility, and big data. Bringing together innovators, investors, and industry leaders, it will chart a clear path toward a smarter, more connected travel ecosystem on the road to 2040.

Macro trend 4: Regenerative tourism: doing more good, not just less harm

“Sustainability is evolving; regeneration is the new benchmark.”

As climate urgency swells, tourism is moving beyond “doing less harm” toward creating lasting good. The Intrepid Travel × Future Laboratory 2040 Report warns that without transformation, many destinations, from the Maldives to Lapland, risk ecological collapse by 2040. Yet it also points to a new model where tourism funds restoration, such as Costa Rica’s net-positive resorts and Bhutan’s “High Value, Low Volume” policy.

A new report from Saudi’s Red Sea Global (RSG), the FII Institute, and partners highlights surging demand for eco-conscious travel outpacing the industry’s capacity to deliver. The study calls for innovation and investment to bridge this gap, as the blue economy, worth $2.5 trillion, is set to double by 2030. It also predicts that by 2040, governments will require tourism businesses to ensure most visitor spending stays within local economies, creating fairer, more mutually beneficial relationships between travellers and communities.What it means for the travel industry: Regeneration requires measurable action, not promises. Operators and destinations must embed tangible benefits into every aspect of travel, from carbon-negative architecture and circular operations to community led growth. Red Sea Global’s model offers a blueprint for responsible tourism: powered by 100 % renewable energy and designed to deliver a 30% net positive biodiversity impact, it shows how innovation and environmental stewardship can coexist.

Macro trend 5: Inclusivity, experience, and the human connection

“The next frontier of travel is empathy, designing experiences that welcome everyone.”

By 2040, more than two billion travellers will be aged 60-plus, while younger generations will expect journeys that reflect diversity, accessibility, and authenticity. McKinsey’s Future of Travel 2024 notes that inclusive design and affordability are now mainstream expectations, not optional extras.

Destinations are responding. Singapore’s ‘Enabling Masterplan 2030’ integrates barrier-free transport and hotel accessibility standards, while VisitScotland’s Inclusive Tourism Framework promotes sensory-friendly experiences and neurodiversity training. In the Middle East, Dubai has emerged as a regional accessibility leader, with Emirates Airline and Dubai Airports enhancing support for People of Determination and those with hidden disabilities, both achieving Certified Autism designations and embedding inclusive design and staff training as standard.

Meanwhile, Gen Z and Gen Alpha are redefining what connection means, seeking brands that align with their social values, from ethical sourcing and representation to genuine cultural exchange. They want experiences that don’t just include them but reflect them.

What it means for the travel industry: The next phase of travel will be built on empathy and inclusion. To stay relevant, destinations and brands must design for everyone, embedding accessibility, representation, and emotional connection into every touchpoint. As Trip.com CEO Jane Sun notes, “AI can enhance the logistics of travel, but what people ultimately want is human warmth – meaningful connection.” In an age of automation, the most successful travel experiences will be those that blend digital precision with genuine human care, where technology supports empathy rather than replaces it.

Macro trend 6: Resilience in an age of uncertainty

“In a volatile world, the strongest advantage is adaptability.”

The World Economic Forum and Kearney’s Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism flags a new truth the industry can’t ignore: shocks – from climate events to geopolitics – are now part of the game. Digital forecasting, flexible infrastructure, and adaptive governance are becoming essential defences. In response, destinations are using AI-driven data models and flexible infrastructure. For instance:

• In the UAE, tourism authorities are embedding AI across the value chain, including predictive visitor flow analytics, personalised services and real-time sustainability metrics.
• In Japan, cities such as Osaka have introduced multilingual AI chatbots to personalise visitor information and improve accessibility, while the market for AI in tourism is projected to reach $554.7 million by 2030.

What it means for the travel industry:
Resilience must be built into every layer, across strategy, operations and culture. Collaboration across governments, insurers and technology providers is now essential. The travel businesses that don’t just survive disruption but use it to reinvent advantage will be the ones leading the journey to 2040.

Conclusion: Taking the pulse at ATM 2026

“The future won’t wait, so the industry must prototype it together.”

At Arabian Travel Market 2026, these macro trends will move from insight to implementation. The show’s theme, “Travel 2040: Driving New Frontiers Through Innovation and Technology,” will unite global travel leaders to explore practical pathways toward a smarter, more sustainable industry.

Across the show floor, innovation will take tangible form, with the ATM Travel Tech  event showcasing AI-powered mobility, immersive trip design, and next-generation payments transforming the travel ecosystem, and the ATM Ultra-Luxury Lounge reimagining travel exclusivity, shifting focus from status to sustainability, privacy, and purpose-driven experience.

Beyond its role as an exhibition, ATM 2026 will serve as a catalyst: a place where ideas are tested, partnerships formed, and innovations accelerated to meet the needs of travellers to 2040 and beyond.